As both federal and provincial governments bring regulations and policies in line with climate change agreements, Canada’s heating and cooling sector is wrestling with an uncertain future.
Warren Heeley, president of the Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute of Canada (HRAI), which represents 1,350 individual and corporate members and another 200 associate members in the HVAC contractor sector, says there are two sides to the challenge, heating and cooling, but both root from government change.
On the heating side, there are uncertainties around what technologies will replace natural gas systems in residential and commercial spaces.
While Ontario’s Climate Change Action Plan calls for more biogas to be added to the fossil-derived natural gas pipeline grid and more vehicles to use natural gas as a fuel, the government backed away from a controversial plan to eliminate natural gas as a heating source by 2030.
Following Amsterdam’s lead, however, Vancouver has passed a bylaw banning natural gas by 2050 and the industry is concerned that no cost efficient technology is ready as a replacement.
Also, says Heeley, members are concerned about ramping up to learn about whatever technology is put in place and want to ensure they don’t end up in a Beta vs VHS war.
“The concerns are, OK so what do we heat homes and commercial spaces with?” says Heeley. “And what about the eight to 10 million installed natural gas furnaces? They aren’t going to give them up overnight.”
Similarly, on the refrigeration side, there are concerns that having just completed the shift to a higher standard of cooling efficiencies and CFC-free cooling mediums, new measures flowing from the federal government’s signing of the Montreal Accord in 2016 bring in a new set of demands.
“The issue is there’s many different types of cooling refrigerants out there and we really want the manufacturers to create a standard,” says Heeley.
At this stage the association has more questions than answers which is a source of frustration, he says.
First, since geothermal systems — either air or ground — are the most likely technology to replace natural gas devices, which of the technologies in the marketplace will be best suited to deliver 100 per cent heat?
The reality, he says, is those heat pumps will likely always need a backup heat source for the most extremely cold days. Mini-split heat pump units are popular in the Maritimes, he adds, but again they need backup.
While there is work being done on cold climate heat pump technology, there’s no certainty it will be practical for Canadian weather, what the cost will be and what the operating costs are since they all run on electricity which is becoming increasingly expensive.
Governments may be pushing people toward electrically-driven heat sources but the general populace is somewhat suspicious, given their experience with soaring hydro rates over the last seven or eight years.
Meanwhile, Heeley says, the natural gas sector is also lobbying hard and there are efforts to reduce the amount of emissive, fossil derived natural gas in the grid by adding more bio-derived natural gases such as methane from bio-digesters on farms and at sewage treatment plants.
For contractors, he says, there’s a need to clearly identify the most viable technologies, to train on their installation, maintenance and managements and to understand the performance characteristics in real world applications.
No one wants to place their bets too early and find out they backed the wrong horse, he says, but neither can they wait too long before they find they’ve fallen behind.
While Canada produces only 1.6 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, the federal government signed the Montreal Accord on Climate Change and wants to be seen as a leader in climate change strategy.
For the cooling and refrigeration sector, the issue is a continuation of changes that have been affecting technology and the refrigerant mediums used.
The first shift was in the 1970s and 1980s because CFCs were causing ozone layer depletion, Heeley says. Subsequently, in the 1990s there was a shift away from their replacement HFCs and now there’s another shift to newer formulations, ROTPs.
Other questions the HRAI faces are more political: If there’s a change in government will incoming leaders dismantle the strategies or change the timelines?
“There’s some skepticism,” he says. “And making the investment in new technologies is expensive, for both large and small firms.”
The issue is that there are so many different types of new technologies, he says, and the contracting industry wants the manufacturers to settle on a sector standard.
“The problem is when you formulate ever higher standard refrigerants they tend to be more volatile,” he says. “That means they’re more flammable and that’s a problem with vehicles and everything else.
“With the volatility now, you’re getting into issues with the building code. The horizon for this is 2020, then 2025. Really that’s now because manufacturers and contractors work on five year horizons.”
Warren Heeley, president of the Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute of Canada (HRAI), which represents 1,350 individual and corporate members and another 200 associate members in the HVAC contractor sector, says there are two sides to the challenge, heating and cooling, but both root from government change.
On the heating side, there are uncertainties around what technologies will replace natural gas systems in residential and commercial spaces.
While Ontario’s Climate Change Action Plan calls for more biogas to be added to the fossil-derived natural gas pipeline grid and more vehicles to use natural gas as a fuel, the government backed away from a controversial plan to eliminate natural gas as a heating source by 2030.
Following Amsterdam’s lead, however, Vancouver has passed a bylaw banning natural gas by 2050 and the industry is concerned that no cost efficient technology is ready as a replacement.
Also, says Heeley, members are concerned about ramping up to learn about whatever technology is put in place and want to ensure they don’t end up in a Beta vs VHS war.
“The concerns are, OK so what do we heat homes and commercial spaces with?” says Heeley. “And what about the eight to 10 million installed natural gas furnaces? They aren’t going to give them up overnight.”
Similarly, on the refrigeration side, there are concerns that having just completed the shift to a higher standard of cooling efficiencies and CFC-free cooling mediums, new measures flowing from the federal government’s signing of the Montreal Accord in 2016 bring in a new set of demands.
“The issue is there’s many different types of cooling refrigerants out there and we really want the manufacturers to create a standard,” says Heeley.
At this stage the association has more questions than answers which is a source of frustration, he says.
First, since geothermal systems — either air or ground — are the most likely technology to replace natural gas devices, which of the technologies in the marketplace will be best suited to deliver 100 per cent heat?
The reality, he says, is those heat pumps will likely always need a backup heat source for the most extremely cold days. Mini-split heat pump units are popular in the Maritimes, he adds, but again they need backup.
While there is work being done on cold climate heat pump technology, there’s no certainty it will be practical for Canadian weather, what the cost will be and what the operating costs are since they all run on electricity which is becoming increasingly expensive.
Governments may be pushing people toward electrically-driven heat sources but the general populace is somewhat suspicious, given their experience with soaring hydro rates over the last seven or eight years.
Meanwhile, Heeley says, the natural gas sector is also lobbying hard and there are efforts to reduce the amount of emissive, fossil derived natural gas in the grid by adding more bio-derived natural gases such as methane from bio-digesters on farms and at sewage treatment plants.
For contractors, he says, there’s a need to clearly identify the most viable technologies, to train on their installation, maintenance and managements and to understand the performance characteristics in real world applications.
No one wants to place their bets too early and find out they backed the wrong horse, he says, but neither can they wait too long before they find they’ve fallen behind.
While Canada produces only 1.6 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, the federal government signed the Montreal Accord on Climate Change and wants to be seen as a leader in climate change strategy.
For the cooling and refrigeration sector, the issue is a continuation of changes that have been affecting technology and the refrigerant mediums used.
The first shift was in the 1970s and 1980s because CFCs were causing ozone layer depletion, Heeley says. Subsequently, in the 1990s there was a shift away from their replacement HFCs and now there’s another shift to newer formulations, ROTPs.
Other questions the HRAI faces are more political: If there’s a change in government will incoming leaders dismantle the strategies or change the timelines?
“There’s some skepticism,” he says. “And making the investment in new technologies is expensive, for both large and small firms.”
The issue is that there are so many different types of new technologies, he says, and the contracting industry wants the manufacturers to settle on a sector standard.
“The problem is when you formulate ever higher standard refrigerants they tend to be more volatile,” he says. “That means they’re more flammable and that’s a problem with vehicles and everything else.
“With the volatility now, you’re getting into issues with the building code. The horizon for this is 2020, then 2025. Really that’s now because manufacturers and contractors work on five year horizons.”
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